After the epidemic is over in Maotai, will Wuliangye usher in a “price cut”?
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After the epidemic is over in Maotai, will Wuliangye usher in a “price cut”?
2020 is the “inflection point year” for wine companies?
Source: Time and Finance Original Li Hongli May Day or should be a small climax of sales.
With the further control of the epidemic, domestic liquor companies are currently returning to work.
Time and Finance preliminary statistics found that since February 10, a large number of internal wine companies including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, willing wine, Fenjiu, Langjiu, Xijiu, Jinshiyuan, etc. have been divided and resumed production.
Relevant person in charge of Beijing Niulanshan Erguotou Distillery told Time Finance that “the factory has now resumed work and sales were very good years ago. The epidemic situation has not affected us much.
“CITIC Construction Investment said in a research report that the sales target of high-end liquor during the Spring Festival peak season has been basically completed, and the impact is less 杭州夜网 than the industry as a whole.
In addition, business demand is expected to be relatively rigid after the end of the epidemic. The epidemic may only delay consumption time, with limited impact on long-term consumption.
Therefore, after the epidemic, sales of high-end liquors are expected to recover faster than sub-high-end liquors, such as real estate liquors.
Time Finance and Economics visited some commercial supermarkets in Beijing and learned that since the Spring Festival so far, liquor sales have gradually been significant and consumer demand has decreased sharply, but the overall price performance is stable compared to the eve of the Spring Festival.
A liquor dealer in Beijing told Time Finance that “we sold well before the Spring Festival and we can say linear displacement after the Spring Festival.
Until now, very few customers have come to the store, and many of the goods stocked years ago have not been sold.
Liquor is different from other consumer goods. It doesn’t matter if you stock it. There is no shelf life. It can be sold at any time. We are most worried about the overall price reduction of the winery.
“In terms of countermeasures, liquor expert Cai Xuefei told Time Finance that liquor companies should do everything possible to reduce costs and increase capital turnover.
At the same time, establish an online distribution network as soon as possible, and start planning experience scenarios to prepare for the next stage.
Time Finance learned from the federal dealers that the eve of the Chinese New Year every year before the 15th of the first month is the peak season for wine sales.
In the Spring Festival of 2020, on the whole, the sales price is basically the same as the Spring Festival, but after the year, the sales volume is obvious, resulting in an increase in inventory.
A dealer in Chiping District, Liaocheng City, Shandong told Time Finance: “Liquor still sold the most in the previous year, and the sales volume the previous day was 4-5 times that of the year after.
At present, there is some pressure on inventory. After the epidemic situation, May Day may drive sales.
“As for whether the price of liquor will be reduced in the future, the said dealer said,” In fact, we also divide the price into different types of wine. If the sales volume is good, the price will not be reduced, and the price may increase.In fact, manufacturers are still increasing prices. Previously, the retail price was 350 yuan per box, but now it has risen to 390 yuan per box.
Some wines that don’t sell well will definitely drop prices.
“Rongze Consulting Liu Xiaowei told Time Finance that from the time of the recent epidemic, basically most liquor manufacturers and brands have completed the sales process of products from manufacturers-distributors-terminals, but consumer demand during the Spring FestivalThe sharp decrease has led to a serious reduction in terminal sales, which also means that liquor stocks generally exist in sales terminals such as tobacco hotels and supermarkets.
After the epidemic is over, the first is to restore the growth of terminal sales and the clearing of inventory, and then the rest of the industry can play a gradual recovery.
This means that liquor dealers “cut prices” to clear inventory may not be effective, because terminal inventory is also at a high level.
Liu Xiaowei believes that most mainstream liquor manufacturers will not choose the “price reduction” method, and the scope of inventory reduction by distributors will be very small, which will not cause large price changes of products or brands.
Generally speaking, after the epidemic situation recovers, liquor will not usher in a wave of price reduction, but the trend of some high-end brands and products will gradually return to rationality.
Liquor expert Cai Xuefei partially agrees with the above view.
He told Time Finance that because liquor dealers are mainly integrated dealers, they have been affected by the shrinking of the overall consumer goods market, including wine, and due to the increase in frozen stocks due to market consumption, it is certain that for some non-selling products, dealersIt is possible to deal with low prices, but because of the strict monitoring of manufacturers, the star products have certain needs, and there is not much room for exploration.
Judging from the high-end liquors such as Maotai, Wuliangye, Dream Blue, Guojiao 1573, and Shuijingfang, Time Finance and Economics visited the offline Supermarket and found that there would not be a price reduction.
Taking Feitian Maotai as an example, it is still a scarce commodity in major smoke hotels and large shopping malls, and the terminal price is still in a high range.
Since the off-season in the summer of 2019, domestic first-line wine companies and regional leading companies have raised their prices, and even individual wine companies have conducted multiple rounds of price increases for their products, which will continue until the end of 2019.
In Cai Xuefei’s view, the epidemic overlaps with the price increase cycle of Chinese wine companies. In addition to the fact that first-line famous wines may continue to grow after they continue, a large number of regional wine companies have to face stagnation in sales and insufficient prices to cause problems such as falling prices and out of control.Industry price increases were interrupted, and regional wine companies that completed price upgrades faced new challenges.
Zheshang Securities also released a research report saying, “We expect that the first-line famous wine Moutai, Wuliangye will be least affected by the epidemic in the short and medium term, and the real-time liquor and sub-high-end leader’s short-term Q2 performance may be significantly under pressure, but Q3 is expected to retaliate due to demand for banquets.The medium- and long-term is expected to benefit from the expansion of sub-high-end structural upgrades; there is room for expansion in the second-tier expansion period; famous wines in the second-tier expansion period are expected to continue to be restrained; the short-term performance of low-grade light bottle wines is significantly damaged, and recovery takes time.
“If the end of a future epidemic occurs, can the liquor industry rebound? Cai Xuefei said that referring to the current trend, the end of the epidemic may limit the country’s collective consumption behavior, and consumers in the prevention and control psychology will reduce the frequency of consumption.
Except for markets such as conferences and wedding banquets, a large amount of consumption will not be concentrated, but it is clear that there may be some “small peaks (Jin Qilin analysts)” in the routine of May Day.
Liu Xiaowei also told Time Finance that during the Ming Dynasty, May 1 will likely lead to a small climax in liquor consumption. During the epidemic, everyone will “retreat” at home, visit friends, and family gatherings will be completed during the Spring Festival.And Qingming, the May Day holiday, just provides everyone with the opportunity to visit and walk around, family gatherings, and get together.
This small consumption climax also depends on the trend and development of the epidemic situation, and even a small consumption peak, and the loss of the Spring Festival consumption peak ranking, its consumption is much lower.
The turning point?
From the perspective of the leading wine companies, Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao have recently set up work conferences to set targets and carry out the next work.
Among them, Moutai, Guizhou stated that it would adhere to the goal of “unchanged plans, unreduced tasks, unadjusted indicators, and unreduced employee income”; Wuliangye said that it would stick to its goals and strive to maintain more than two growth in operating income;Said that the company’s long-term goals remain unchanged, and fully support the majority of dealers to minimize the impact of the epidemic, and work together to complete the 2020 annual development goals.
In this way, Cai Xuefei said that because the offline sales market has not fully recovered, and the online sales account for a relatively small amount, the current resumption of work in wineries is more in the production and internal training stages.Will affect expected performance and corporate goals.
Time financial statistics found that as of February 21, seven companies in the liquor industry have announced their 2019 performance forecast.
Except for the gold seed wine which is expected to meet expectations, and the outside of Qingqingyu wine’s net profit, the remaining 5 companies have different degrees of growth.
The performance of leading wine companies is still growing rapidly, and some regional wine companies have replaced, even occasionally.
Among them, Guizhou Moutai is expected to realize a net profit of about 40.5 billion US dollars in 2019, an increase of about 15%; Shuijingfang is expected to achieve a net profit of about 8.
26 trillion US dollars, an increase of about 43%; this world margin is expected to achieve a net profit of about 13.
8.1 billion to 14.
9.6 billion yuan, an increase of 20% to 30%.
Shanxi Fenjiu is expected to achieve a net profit of 20.
2.4 billion yuan, an increase of 37 over the same period last year.
Suspension of listing * ST Huangtai is also expected to turn losses into wins, achieving net profit of about 45 million to 55 million.
Zhu Danpeng believes that from the fundamentals of the liquor industry in 2019, high-end wine companies have shown successful price increases for many times.Price, increase channel profits, but naked swimmers continue to appear; regional leading wine companies have presented a continuous price war strategy, shrinking the market front, focusing on the core market; and regional wine companies are facing the trend of integration.
“Therefore, it is judged that the liquor industry will accelerate differentiation in 2020.
“According to the data provided by the China Wine Association, the profit of the liquor industry from January to October 2019 has reached 111.2 billion US dollars. The top 50 companies in the liquor industry account for more than 90% of the industry profit.
In essence, the number of enterprises above designated size in Chinese liquor decreased from 1593 in 2017 to 1176 in January-October 2019, a decrease of 26.
From the situation of existing liquor-listed companies, the competition pattern of national brands + regional strong brands is roughly the same. Among the top three “Mao Wuyang”, Luzhou Laojiao, Gujing Liquor, Shanxi Fen Liquor, etc.The second echelon of tens of billions of grades, and the regional wines with a smaller non-ten billion volume include Kouzi Warehouse, Yingjia Gongjiu, Jinshiyuan, Laobaigan, Shuijingfang and so on.
Cai Xuefei believes that the epidemic situation overlaps with the upgrade of China’s alcohol consumption. With the impact of the epidemic, it will promote and differentiate alcohol consumption, which will strengthen the market advantage of famous wine and accelerate the development of famous wine.
However, regional wine companies and low-end wine companies will face multiple pressures such as the squeeze of famous wines and market fragmentation.