Po Laiya (603605) 19 Interim Review: Deduct non-net profit for ten years + 39% of e-commerce and major brands perform well

Po Laiya (603605) 19 武汉夜生活网 Interim Review: Deduct non-net profit for ten years + 39% of e-commerce and major brands perform well

A Brief Comment on Performance 1H 2019 The company achieved revenue 13.

28 ppm, +27 a year.

48%; net profit attributable to mother 1.

73 trillion, ten years +34.

49%; deduct non-attributed net profit1.

710,000 yuan, +39 for ten years.


Among them, Q2 single-quarter company achieved revenue 6.

860,000 yuan, +27 a year.

39%, the growth rate is -0.

20pct; Q2 achieved net profit attributable to mother 0.

820,000 yuan, +39 for ten years.

39%; net profit after deduction is 0.

80 trillion, +44 for ten years.

31%, a growth rate of +8 from Q1.

93 points.

Operational analysis The performance of e-commerce channels was strong, and offline channels grew steadily: 1H19 company’s e-commerce channel revenue6.

1.1 billion, accounting for 46.

01% for one year +48.

08%, of which e-commerce direct sales accounted for 47%.

30%, e-commerce distribution accounted for 52.

70%; CS channel revenue 5.

2.5 billion, accounting for 39.

57%, ten years +11.

70%; Supermarket revenue is 0.

9.5 billion, accounting for 7.

17%, +13 for ten years.

10%; single brand store revenue is 0.

7.4 billion, accounting for 5.

59%, ten years +10.


; Other channel revenue is 0.

2.2 billion, accounting for 1.


Brand upgrades and new product launches, rapid growth of main brands: 1H19 main brand Polaia revenue 11.

7.4 billion, accounting for 88.

50%, +26 per year.

28%.In the first half of 2019, based on the DNA of the brand “Ocean”, four new product series were launched: the essence family, including nicotinamide whitening essence and collagen line carving essence; deep-sea moisturizing yeast solution; polarized special repairing mask; printed color barHa insbaha makeup foundation and eyeshadow palette.

Youzilai achieved zero revenue.

5.3 billion, accounting for 3.

99%, ten years +10.


The revenue of other brands was 1 trillion, accounting for 7.

51%, +53 per year.


Skincare has a solid foundation, and new makeup categories have grown rapidly: 1H19 skincare revenue 12.

50,000 yuan, accounting for 90.

83%, ten years +27.

81%; Beauty (makeup) revenue was 0.

3.9 billion yuan, accounting for 2.

94%, +209 per year.

78%; cleansing revenue is 0.

8.3 billion, accounting for 6.

23% per year -2.


1H19 combined short-term gross profit margin +3.

6pct, the sales expense rate is +1 for half a year.

77pct, net interest rate +0 per second.

68 points: 1H19 gross margin was 65.

78%, the initial increase in gross profit margin is the increase in the proportion of e-commerce channels, and the proportion of direct e-commerce in e-commerce channels has increased; the proportion of high-margin products such as lotions and essences has increased.

Selling charges are priced at 39.

40%, the reason for the increase is to cooperate with the promotion of new products and the creation of explosives, and expand advertising.

The management expense 厦门夜网 ratio (including R & D expenses) is 8.

90%, ten years +0.

At 92pct, the company’s gross profit margin increased by more than the expense rate end, and the net profit attributable to the parent decreased by +0.

68pct to 13.


Investment recommendations Looking forward to 2019, the company’s multi-brand + multi-category + multi-channel matrix layout is worth looking forward to.

2019-2021 predicts that the company’s EPS will be 1.

92, 2.

41, 2.

85 yuan, +34 for ten years.

81%, +25.

29%, 18.

25%, PE corresponding to the current market value is 40, 32, 27 times, maintaining the buying level.

Risks suggest that new brand or category development is less than expected, market competition is intensifying, consumption growth is gradually increasing, and channel structure is changing

Yili shares (600887) 2018 annual report comment: key products maintain rapid growth and market share continues to increase

Yili shares (600887) 2018 annual report comment: key products maintain rapid growth and market share continues to increase

Event: The company released its 2018 annual report.

In 2018, total operating income was 795.

5.3 billion, an annual increase of 16.

89%; net profit attributable to mothers was 64.

400 million, an annual 杭州桑拿网 increase of 7.

31%, performance in line with expectations.

Comment: Q4 performance growth has picked up.

The company achieved total operating income of 182 in 2018Q4.

2.6 billion, an annual increase of 16.

93%; net profit attributable to mother 13.

USD 9.2 billion, an annual increase of 30.


In the first quarter of 2018, total operating income for the second and third quarters increased by 25.

1%, 14.

05% and 12.

68%, net profit attributable to mothers increased by 21 each year.

1%, -17.

47% and 1.


The growth rate of Q4 performance rebounded from the previous month, mainly due to the decline in expenses and sales growth.

Gross profit margin has increased and net profit margin has decreased.

The company’s comprehensive gross profit margin increased by an average of 0 in 2018.

54 good 37.


The period expense rate is increased by 1.

21 perfect to 29.

27%, of which the sales expense ratio increases by 2 every year.

04 excellent to 24.

85%; the management expense rate drops by 0 every year.

59 perfect to 4.

28%, the financial expense ratio drops by 0 every year.

27 good -0.


Affected by the increase in the expense ratio, the net interest rate fell by 0.

72 good to 8.


Key products maintained rapid growth.

In 2018, the company’s liquid milk revenue increased by 17 in ten years.78%, with sales increasing 11 per year.

18%; revenue from milk powder and dairy products grows 25% annually.

14%, with sales increasing by 15 per year.

78%; cold drink revenue increased by 8 in ten years.

49%, sales increase by 2 every year.


Sales revenue of key products such as “Golden Code”, “An Muxi”, “Chang Yi 100%”, “Chang Qing”, “Happy Day”, “Golden Collar”, “Qiao Le Zi”, “Rare Selection” and so on increased significantly.

3%; during the same period, new product sales accounted for 14.

8%, an increase of 5 per year.

6 averages.

Market share and penetration continued to increase.

In 2018, Nielsen Zero Research data showed that the company’s market share of retail sales of normal temperature and low temperature liquid milk business was 36.

8% and 16.

6%, an increase of 2 each year.

3 and 0.

5 blends; the company ‘s infant formula sales market share is 5.

8%, an increase of 0 a year.

6 averages.

Kantar research data show that as of December 2018, the company’s market penetration of liquid dairy products at room temperature penetrated 82.

3%, an increase of 2 per year.

2 averages.

During the reporting period, the company directly controlled nearly 60 village-level outlets.

80,000, previously increased by 14.


Continue to advance the internationalization strategy.

The company continues to advance the three international strategies of “global resources, 杭州夜网论坛 global innovation, and global markets.”

In 2018, the company’s “Joy Day” ice cream was successfully listed in many cities; in November, the company acquired Thailand’s largest ice cream company THE CHOMTHANACOMPANY LIMITED; maintaining the recommendation level.

The company’s 2019-2020 EPS is expected to be divided into 1.

25 yuan and 1.

46 yuan, corresponding to PE and 21 times and 18 times.

Maintain recommended level.

Risk reminders: food safety issues, excessive cost increases, etc.

Hongfa (600885): Steady growth of multi-dimensional business

Hongfa (600885): Steady growth of multi-dimensional business

The performance of the relay faucet has steadily increased, and the significant effect of expanding the category strategy has gradually achieved company revenue of 68 years.

80,000 yuan (ten years +14.

28%), net profit attributable to mother 6.

99 ‰ (+ 2).

02%), and performance was in line with expectations.

The company has been deeply involved in the relay industry for more than 20 years. In 18 years, it implemented the strategy of “expanding categories” to maintain the competitiveness of general and power relay products while accelerating the market expansion of multi-dimensional products such as high and low voltage electrical appliances.

We expected 19?
The 21-year return to mother’s net profit was 7, respectively.



9.5 billion, given a 19-year target price of 29.


8 yuan, give “overweight” rating.

Operating income has grown steadily, and operating efficiency has continued to improve. The company’s 18-year revenue was 68.

800,000 yuan (ten years +14.

28%), with revenue steadily increasing and net profit attributable to 重庆耍耍网 mothers6.

99 ‰ (+ 2).

02%), a slight increase over 17 years.

Affected by the exchange rate and the increase in raw material prices, the company’s gross profit margin in 2018 was 36.

84% (decade-3.

02pct), net interest rate 13.

96% (year -1.


Among them, the decline in Q4 gross profit margin was slightly higher than expected. We expect that the decline will be mainly due to the decline in product prices, the increase in raw material prices and the impact of tariffs.

The company’s cost control ability continued to increase, and the company’s cost during the year of 2018 was 10.

67 trillion, accounting for 20 of operating income.

32% (one year-0.

25pct); affected by the increase in R & D investment, the company’s management expense ratio is 15.

51%, an increase of 1 over 2017.

9 points.

The advantages of general and power relays continue to rise rapidly. According to the Hongfa Annual Report, the company continues to produce more than 20 billion relays, low-voltage electrical appliances and other products. Its main relay products have a global market share of more than 14%.The global market share in the field of meter relays is leading.

The cumulative shipments of power relays for home appliances were US $ 2.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13%. In 2018, the total shipments of power relays were US $ 1.2 billion (-3% per year), still ranking first in the world for power relays.

High-voltage DC relays continued to grow significantly, and new energy vehicles were replaced with high-voltage DC relays and high-voltage distribution box-related products.

700 million (+ 46%), long-term shipment of low-voltage appliances5.

800 million (+ 38%).

Cash flow has improved significantly, and business growth has led to an increase in receivables. In 2018, the company’s cash flow was 1.

8.6 billion, an increase of 119% over 2017, and cash flow has improved significantly.

Affected by the increase in sales scale, increased cash rebates and restructuring returns, the company’s operating cash flow in 20188.
27 ppm, an increase of 27 per year.
twenty three%.

The company has stepped up the transformation of its automated production lines and continued to improve its core competitiveness. In 2018, it invested in cash flow to replace 8.

RMB 760,000 (+49 for the whole year.


Affected by the company’s sales policy, accounts receivable in 201817.

60,000 yuan (ten years +19.

57%), basically the same as the growth rate of revenue, business growth led to an increase in accounts receivable.

Power relays recovered ahead of time, and the market share of high-voltage DC transients was given an “overweight” rating. Smart meter replacement tide and ubiquitous power IoT construction demand have driven the growth of power relays in the next 2-3 years.

The advantages of the high-voltage DC relay business card position are obvious. We think that in 19 years, it is expected to supply first-tier car companies in batches, and the business will continue to grow rapidly. We will increase 19?
21 years return to mother’s net profit to 7.



95 ppm (19-20 years ago average 7).



Comparable company 19 years PE average 25.

96x, considering that the company’s new business layout is maturing, we give the company a 28-30 target PE and a target price of 29.


8 yuan, give “overweight” rating.

Risk warning: demand in downstream industries is lower than expected, market conditions are changing, competition is intensifying, and new business development is less than expected.

Hexing Packaging (002228) Quarterly Report Review 2019: Paper Price Falling and Income Under Pressure, Gross Margin Elasticity Appears; PSCP Platform Continues High Growth

Hexing Packaging (002228) Quarterly Report Review 2019: Paper Price Falling and Income Under Pressure, Gross Margin Elasticity Appears; PSCP Platform Continues High Growth

Investment Highlights: The company announced the 2019 first quarter report, after readjustment, net profit attributable to mothers increased by 17.

5%, basically in line with our expectations.

Revenue from January to March 2019 was 28.

7.6 billion, an annual increase of 8 after gradual adjustment.

2%; net profit attributable to mothers was 68.33 million yuan, and increased 17 years after adjustment.

5%; net profit of RMB 63.25 million deducted from non-attributed mothers, and increased by 12 years after adjustment.


  Cash flow continued to improve significantly, with net operating cash flow inflows from January to March 20191.

3.4 billion (vs. net replacement of 1 in January-March 2018.

5.3 billion).

  Paper prices have fallen, pressure on self-operated packaging business income, and gross profit margins have increased.

Since the second half of 2018, the price of corrugated cardboard has continued to fall. The average price of corrugated cardboard from January to March 2019 was 4,573 yuan / ton, which can be reduced by 6.

8%; The average price of 四川耍耍网 corrugated paper from January to March 2019 is 3,817 yuan / ton, once it drops by 7.

0%, affected by this, the company’s product prices are lowered; in addition, due to the Spring Festival factors, orders from January to February were relatively weak, which caused the self-operated packaging (own factory + Hezhong Chuangya factory) revenue growth slowed.

  Benefiting from the drop in paper prices, we estimate that the company’s self-operated packaging gross margin will increase by more than 1 pct.

  The business of the PSCP platform continues to grow rapidly. We are optimistic about the increase in profitability of the PSCP platform after deepening cooperation.

The business of PSCP platform continued to increase. The company merged and continued to sign new cooperation companies to replace the PSCP platform. It deepened the cooperation relationship with platform companies and fully integrated the order, finance, production, and procurement resources. We expect that the revenue of PSCP platform will still exceed50% growth.

With the deepening of the cooperation between the company and the PSCP supply chain platform enterprises, we believe that the profitability of the PSCP platform business will gradually improve and contribute to the flexibility of performance.

  The synergy between Hezhong Chuangya and the company’s own factories will gradually appear in 2019, contributing to the profit elasticity.

In June 2018, the company acquired 14 factories in China and 4 factories in Southeast Asia to realize the expansion of its internal regional layout and increase of production capacity.

1) Proportion of Hezhong Chuangya ‘s net worth improvement: Hezhong Chuangya ‘s net worth structure increases the company ‘s own traditional orders. With the increase of production efficiency and management efficiency, Hezhong Chuangya ‘s net worth gradually exceeds the company ‘s traditional business net interest rate.

  2) Beginning in 2019, the synergy effect between the two parties in the domestic market will gradually become apparent: the company’s own 30 factories and Hezhong Chuangya’s 14 domestic factories will gradually generate order synergy, production synergy, orders and scheduling will be gradually optimized, effectively promoting the production of the plants of both partiesEfficiency and achieve synergy.

  With a new model and new positioning, the company shifted from a packaging manufacturer to an integrated packaging service provider and maintained buying.

The small capacity of the paper packaging industry accelerated its withdrawal, and the industry began to enter an accelerated integration period.

The company has been focusing on the paper packaging industry for a long time, has a long-term professional accumulation, a broad user base, and experience in off-site capacity management. It accelerates the integration of the industry through self-built capacity, industry mergers and acquisitions, etc.

The company’s innovative business continued to advance steadily, and PSCP and IPS gradually increased in volume, creating synergy with traditional businesses.

We maintain our profit forecast for net profit attributable to mothers for 2019-2021 to 3.

5.9 billion, 4.

6.4 billion and 5.

8 billion yuan, corresponding to the growth rate of 54%, 29% and 25% of the return to net profit for 2019-2021, which is currently the same (5.

(20 yuan) corresponding to 2019-2021 PE is 17 times, 13 times, 10 times.

We are optimistic about the company’s leading strength in the carton packaging industry. The company’s future integration space is huge, and the new model is working hard to accelerate industry integration. The pressure on raw material costs tends to improve to achieve profit elasticity and maintain buying!

Why did Foreign Capital buy Maotai and Wuliangye and sell Ping An and CMB?

Why did Foreign Capital buy Maotai and Wuliangye and sell Ping An and CMB?

Source: This week (February 17-February 21), after a lapse of nearly ten months, the A-share turnover once again broke through the trillion mark.At 2,200 points, the GEM Index took the lead in hitting a new high in three years.

With the strengthening of A shares, many investors floated too much.

  In fact, the pace of northbound capital additions continues, with a net purchase of 6.5 billion yuan this week and a gradual net purchase of 40.9 billion yuan this month.

This week, except for February 18 and February 21, the net inflow of foreign exchange was replaced by the other three trading days.

For details, please refer to the merger: From the perspective of individual stocks, according to the data of the top ten active trading stocks listed on the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the gradual control of the epidemic situation was transformed.Stocks, rare metals, home appliances and other industry stocks also suffered from foreign lightening.

  Among the stocks that added positions, Guizhou Maotai, Wuliangye, BOE A, China International Travel Service, Ningde Times and other stocks were all fully funded.

Among them, Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye were both net bought over 1 billion, showing that after the import control of the epidemic, confidence in consumer sectors such as liquor has gradually rebounded.

  It is worth noting that the recent GEM hot stock Ningde Times also ranks among the top foreign foreign investors.

On February 19, the Financial Times quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that Tesla had agreed to purchase lithium iron phosphate batteries from the Ningde era.

The Ningde Times Securities Office also said that the current cooperation with Tesla is only at the stage of intent agreement, and specific details have not been determined.

Subsequently, the Ningde era continued to be popular in the market, and foreign countries continued to increase their positions.

  List of net foreign stock purchases this week: It is noteworthy that some financial stocks have been net sold by foreign countries this week. According to the No. 1 financial institute, this week Ping An of China, China Merchants Bank, CITIC Securities, and Ping An Bank were net sold by foreign countries.Out.

In addition to financial stocks, Gree Electric Appliances, which was “buy” by terrorism abroad, was also lightened by foreign countries this week.厦门夜网

  List of recent foreign exchange net stocks sold: Source: Oriental Fortune Chioce’s continued purchase of A shares in foreign countries, CITIC Securities said that in the long term, the long-term strategic allocation area of the A-share market is estimated to be a US stock alternative advantage; short-termJudging from the fact that A-shares are currently at a low point in a round of earnings growth cycles, while U.S. stocks are at a high point, the return of A-shares is expected to significantly exceed that of U.S. stocks.

  In the current major global markets, A-shares have high relative value, good economic fundamentals, good safety margins, and higher allocation values in the medium and long term. This is also the ratio of A-shares divided by the various overseas indexes.The fundamental reason for enriching and 北京夜生活网 increasing the allocation ratio of A shares.

As China’s capital market becomes more open, the extent of foreign inflows into A-shares will continue to deepen.

  Zhang Qirao, chief strategy analyst of Guosheng Securities, also pointed out that the recent supervision continues to release warmth and clearly protects the real economy and the capital market.

The huge return of foreign countries has supported the market.

After short-term adjustments, the A-share market risk premium has once again returned to a high level and has a higher safety margin in the medium and long term.

After the epidemic is over in Maotai, will Wuliangye usher in a price cut?

After the epidemic is over in Maotai, will Wuliangye usher in a “price cut”?

For stocks, please read Jin Qilin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, to help you tap potential potential opportunities!

  After the epidemic is over in Maotai, will Wuliangye usher in a “price cut”?

2020 is the “inflection point year” for wine companies?

  Source: Time and Finance Original Li Hongli May Day or should be a small climax of sales.

  With the further control of the epidemic, domestic liquor companies are currently returning to work.

Time and Finance preliminary statistics found that since February 10, a large number of internal wine companies including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, willing wine, Fenjiu, Langjiu, Xijiu, Jinshiyuan, etc. have been divided and resumed production.

  Relevant person in charge of Beijing Niulanshan Erguotou Distillery told Time Finance that “the factory has now resumed work and sales were very good years ago. The epidemic situation has not affected us much.

“CITIC Construction Investment said in a research report that the sales target of high-end liquor during the Spring Festival peak season has been basically completed, and the impact is less 杭州夜网 than the industry as a whole.

In addition, business demand is expected to be relatively rigid after the end of the epidemic. The epidemic may only delay consumption time, with limited impact on long-term consumption.

Therefore, after the epidemic, sales of high-end liquors are expected to recover faster than sub-high-end liquors, such as real estate liquors.

  Time Finance and Economics visited some commercial supermarkets in Beijing and learned that since the Spring Festival so far, liquor sales have gradually been significant and consumer demand has decreased sharply, but the overall price performance is stable compared to the eve of the Spring Festival.

A liquor dealer in Beijing told Time Finance that “we sold well before the Spring Festival and we can say linear displacement after the Spring Festival.

Until now, very few customers have come to the store, and many of the goods stocked years ago have not been sold.

Liquor is different from other consumer goods. It doesn’t matter if you stock it. There is no shelf life. It can be sold at any time. We are most worried about the overall price reduction of the winery.

“In terms of countermeasures, liquor expert Cai Xuefei told Time Finance that liquor companies should do everything possible to reduce costs and increase capital turnover.

At the same time, establish an online distribution network as soon as possible, and start planning experience scenarios to prepare for the next stage.

  Price reduction?

  Time Finance learned from the federal dealers that the eve of the Chinese New Year every year before the 15th of the first month is the peak season for wine sales.

In the Spring Festival of 2020, on the whole, the sales price is basically the same as the Spring Festival, but after the year, the sales volume is obvious, resulting in an increase in inventory.

  A dealer in Chiping District, Liaocheng City, Shandong told Time Finance: “Liquor still sold the most in the previous year, and the sales volume the previous day was 4-5 times that of the year after.

At present, there is some pressure on inventory. After the epidemic situation, May Day may drive sales.

“As for whether the price of liquor will be reduced in the future, the said dealer said,” In fact, we also divide the price into different types of wine. If the sales volume is good, the price will not be reduced, and the price may increase.In fact, manufacturers are still increasing prices. Previously, the retail price was 350 yuan per box, but now it has risen to 390 yuan per box.

Some wines that don’t sell well will definitely drop prices.

“Rongze Consulting Liu Xiaowei told Time Finance that from the time of the recent epidemic, basically most liquor manufacturers and brands have completed the sales process of products from manufacturers-distributors-terminals, but consumer demand during the Spring FestivalThe sharp decrease has led to a serious reduction in terminal sales, which also means that liquor stocks generally exist in sales terminals such as tobacco hotels and supermarkets.

After the epidemic is over, the first is to restore the growth of terminal sales and the clearing of inventory, and then the rest of the industry can play a gradual recovery.

This means that liquor dealers “cut prices” to clear inventory may not be effective, because terminal inventory is also at a high level.

  Liu Xiaowei believes that most mainstream liquor manufacturers will not choose the “price reduction” method, and the scope of inventory reduction by distributors will be very small, which will not cause large price changes of products or brands.

Generally speaking, after the epidemic situation recovers, liquor will not usher in a wave of price reduction, but the trend of some high-end brands and products will gradually return to rationality.

  Liquor expert Cai Xuefei partially agrees with the above view.

He told Time Finance that because liquor dealers are mainly integrated dealers, they have been affected by the shrinking of the overall consumer goods market, including wine, and due to the increase in frozen stocks due to market consumption, it is certain that for some non-selling products, dealersIt is possible to deal with low prices, but because of the strict monitoring of manufacturers, the star products have certain needs, and there is not much room for exploration.

  Judging from the high-end liquors such as Maotai, Wuliangye, Dream Blue, Guojiao 1573, and Shuijingfang, Time Finance and Economics visited the offline Supermarket and found that there would not be a price reduction.

Taking Feitian Maotai as an example, it is still a scarce commodity in major smoke hotels and large shopping malls, and the terminal price is still in a high range.

  Since the off-season in the summer of 2019, domestic first-line wine companies and regional leading companies have raised their prices, and even individual wine companies have conducted multiple rounds of price increases for their products, which will continue until the end of 2019.

  In Cai Xuefei’s view, the epidemic overlaps with the price increase cycle of Chinese wine companies. In addition to the fact that first-line famous wines may continue to grow after they continue, a large number of regional wine companies have to face stagnation in sales and insufficient prices to cause problems such as falling prices and out of control.Industry price increases were interrupted, and regional wine companies that completed price upgrades faced new challenges.

  Zheshang Securities also released a research report saying, “We expect that the first-line famous wine Moutai, Wuliangye will be least affected by the epidemic in the short and medium term, and the real-time liquor and sub-high-end leader’s short-term Q2 performance may be significantly under pressure, but Q3 is expected to retaliate due to demand for banquets.The medium- and long-term is expected to benefit from the expansion of sub-high-end structural upgrades; there is room for expansion in the second-tier expansion period; famous wines in the second-tier expansion period are expected to continue to be restrained; the short-term performance of low-grade light bottle wines is significantly damaged, and recovery takes time.

“If the end of a future epidemic occurs, can the liquor industry rebound? Cai Xuefei said that referring to the current trend, the end of the epidemic may limit the country’s collective consumption behavior, and consumers in the prevention and control psychology will reduce the frequency of consumption.

Except for markets such as conferences and wedding banquets, a large amount of consumption will not be concentrated, but it is clear that there may be some “small peaks (Jin Qilin analysts)” in the routine of May Day.

  Liu Xiaowei also told Time Finance that during the Ming Dynasty, May 1 will likely lead to a small climax in liquor consumption. During the epidemic, everyone will “retreat” at home, visit friends, and family gatherings will be completed during the Spring Festival.And Qingming, the May Day holiday, just provides everyone with the opportunity to visit and walk around, family gatherings, and get together.

This small consumption climax also depends on the trend and development of the epidemic situation, and even a small consumption peak, and the loss of the Spring Festival consumption peak ranking, its consumption is much lower.

  The turning point?

  From the perspective of the leading wine companies, Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao have recently set up work conferences to set targets and carry out the next work.

Among them, Moutai, Guizhou stated that it would adhere to the goal of “unchanged plans, unreduced tasks, unadjusted indicators, and unreduced employee income”; Wuliangye said that it would stick to its goals and strive to maintain more than two growth in operating income;Said that the company’s long-term goals remain unchanged, and fully support the majority of dealers to minimize the impact of the epidemic, and work together to complete the 2020 annual development goals.

  In this way, Cai Xuefei said that because the offline sales market has not fully recovered, and the online sales account for a relatively small amount, the current resumption of work in wineries is more in the production and internal training stages.Will affect expected performance and corporate goals.

  Time financial statistics found that as of February 21, seven companies in the liquor industry have announced their 2019 performance forecast.

Except for the gold seed wine which is expected to meet expectations, and the outside of Qingqingyu wine’s net profit, the remaining 5 companies have different degrees of growth.

The performance of leading wine companies is still growing rapidly, and some regional wine companies have replaced, even occasionally.

  Among them, Guizhou Moutai is expected to realize a net profit of about 40.5 billion US dollars in 2019, an increase of about 15%; Shuijingfang is expected to achieve a net profit of about 8.

26 trillion US dollars, an increase of about 43%; this world margin is expected to achieve a net profit of about 13.

8.1 billion to 14.

9.6 billion yuan, an increase of 20% to 30%.

Shanxi Fenjiu is expected to achieve a net profit of 20.

2.4 billion yuan, an increase of 37 over the same period last year.


Suspension of listing * ST Huangtai is also expected to turn losses into wins, achieving net profit of about 45 million to 55 million.

  Zhu Danpeng believes that from the fundamentals of the liquor industry in 2019, high-end wine companies have shown successful price increases for many times.Price, increase channel profits, but naked swimmers continue to appear; regional leading wine companies have presented a continuous price war strategy, shrinking the market front, focusing on the core market; and regional wine companies are facing the trend of integration.

“Therefore, it is judged that the liquor industry will accelerate differentiation in 2020.

“According to the data provided by the China Wine Association, the profit of the liquor industry from January to October 2019 has reached 111.2 billion US dollars. The top 50 companies in the liquor industry account for more than 90% of the industry profit.

In essence, the number of enterprises above designated size in Chinese liquor decreased from 1593 in 2017 to 1176 in January-October 2019, a decrease of 26.


  From the situation of existing liquor-listed companies, the competition pattern of national brands + regional strong brands is roughly the same. Among the top three “Mao Wuyang”, Luzhou Laojiao, Gujing Liquor, Shanxi Fen Liquor, etc.The second echelon of tens of billions of grades, and the regional wines with a smaller non-ten billion volume include Kouzi Warehouse, Yingjia Gongjiu, Jinshiyuan, Laobaigan, Shuijingfang and so on.

  Cai Xuefei believes that the epidemic situation overlaps with the upgrade of China’s alcohol consumption. With the impact of the epidemic, it will promote and differentiate alcohol consumption, which will strengthen the market advantage of famous wine and accelerate the development of famous wine.

However, regional wine companies and low-end wine companies will face multiple pressures such as the squeeze of famous wines and market fragmentation.

Depth-Company-Chint Electric (601877): Three quarterly results in line with expectations Gross margins increase quarter by quarter

Depth * Company * Chint Electric (601877): Three quarterly results in line with expectations Gross margins increase quarter by quarter

The company released the third quarter report of 2019, and the performance was in line with expectations.

The company’s low-voltage electrical and photovoltaic businesses are driven by two wheels, with solid performance growth. We are optimistic about the company’s future development and maintain a BUY rating.

Key points supporting the rating The results of the three quarterly reports are in line with expectations: The company released the third quarterly report for 2019 and achieved operating income of 224 from January to September.

7.7 billion, an annual increase of 17.

62%; realize net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

64 ppm, a ten-year increase2.

65%, after deducting non-reduction, it drops to 0.

02%; the increase in profit and loss after the transfer of generators to Zhejiang Water Investment in 2018 will be extended by 20.


Among them, the third quarter achieved revenue of 80.

50 ppm, an increase of ten years.

67%, down 4 from the previous month.

54%; profit 10.

80 ppm, a ten-year increase of 7.

21%, down 13 from the previous month.


The company’s three quarterly results are in line with expectations.

The gross profit margin increased quarter by quarter and the operating cash flow performed well: the company’s gross 北京桑拿 profit margin in the first three quarters.

41%, a decrease of 0 per year.

36 averages, of which the gross profit margin in the third quarter was 31.

71%, an increase of 1 per year.

40 units, an increase of 2 from the second quarter.

71 averages, showing a trend of seasonal improvement in 2019.

In terms of operating cash flow, the company’s net operating cash flow in the first three quarters was 29.

55 ppm, a sharp 99% increase previously, of which net inflow in the third quarter was 19.

65 ppm, a previous increase of more than 3 times, an increase of 47 from the previous month.

68%, operating cash flow performed well, reflecting higher earnings quality.

Power station operation is stable and distributed installed capacity continues to grow: As of the end of the third quarter of 2019, the company’s inventory is in the total installed capacity of photovoltaic power stations.

18GW, of which centralized type 1.

15GW, distributed 2.

03GW, decentralized grade at the end of half a year 20191.

The installed capacity of 57GW increased by 461MW, an increase of 1 from the end of the third quarter of last year.

11GW; for centralized generators, there was no significant change in installed capacity during the year, and it increased by 135MW at the same time last year.

In the first three quarters, the company realized electricity fee income17.

96 ppm, an increase of 14 years.


We estimate that the company’s estimated earnings for 2019-2021 will be 1.
85, 2.
22, 2.

53 yuan, the corresponding price-earnings ratio is 11.


9, 8.

7x; Maintain Buy rating.

The main risks facing the rating are photovoltaic policy risks; photovoltaic power generation supplementary arrears and curtailment risks; domestic fixed asset investment falls short of expectations; overseas market expansion falls short of expectations.

Li Keqiang inspects the three major banks and proposes comprehensive reductions in fiscal and monetary policies.

Li Keqiang inspects the three major banks and proposes comprehensive reductions in fiscal and monetary policies.


The overall reduction of standards is coming. Li Keqiang inspected three conventional lines, and mentioned that the overall reduction of standards, the amount of cross-section information is huge, and the double expansion of fiscal + monetary policy can be expected. Source: Securities Times website According to the Chinese government 武汉桑拿 website, the beginning of the new year 2019,On January 4, Premier Li Keqiang inspected the Inclusive Finance Department of Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank successively, and hosted a forum at the China Banking Regulatory Commission.

The Prime Minister, we must strengthen the counter-cyclical adjustment of macroeconomic policies, further take measures to reduce taxes and fees, make good use of overall reductions, and use targeted reduction tools to support the financing of private enterprises and small and micro enterprises.

  Although the official news is only a few crosses, the amount of information disclosed is very large: reorganization. At the beginning of the new year, Li Keqiang visited the on-site bank one after another. The schedule was very tight. The core content of the talk was greater counter-cyclical adjustment.Support for private enterprises and small and micro financing, which shows that high-level executives are paying close attention to the steady economic growth of this year and the improvement of corporate financing environment.In particular, there are a few rare proposals for “full-scale reductions”, and often too many analysts have proposed that they should be fully reduced before spring.

Li Keqiang’s proposal for a comprehensive RRR cut is a formal exposure to the market outlook.

It is foreseeable that a full-scale reduction will come soon, which is a matter of course for the motherboard!

  The significance of the famous inclusive financial development and the responsibilities of the big bank. In addition to the inspections of the head offices of the three major state-owned banks of the Bank of China, ICBC and CCB, Li Keqiang also hosted a forum held by the CBRC.

At the meeting, Li Keqiang proposed to strengthen the counter-cyclical adjustment of macroeconomic policies, further take measures to reduce taxes and fees, make good use of comprehensive standards reduction, targeted reduction tools, and support the financing of private enterprises and small and micro enterprises.

  The above-mentioned speech is in the same vein as the work deployed by the preliminary Central Economic Work Conference in mid-December last year.

The Central Economic Work Conference proposed that in 2019, we must strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments, continue to implement proactive fiscal policies and stable monetary policies, make timely adjustments and fine-tuning to stabilize overall demand, and promote larger tax cuts, more obvious fee reductions, and effective measures.Alleviate the difficulty of financing, which is difficult and expensive.

  Daxing has been known as a “head goose” in the development of inclusive finance through its large size and wide network of outlets.

Since last year, conventional big banks have introduced specific policy adjustments to support the development of private enterprises. They have stated that they must spend more loan quotas on private enterprises, small and micro enterprises, and simplify the approval process for private enterprises and small and micro loans. Among them, in recent years, due to the construction bankIt has made great efforts in inclusive finance. Last year, it also became the only bank among the four major banks to enjoy the second-tier preferential reduction (150bp reduction) of inclusive finance.

  However, in order to further stimulate the enthusiasm of banks to invest in inclusive finance, we have just announced this week that we will adjust the inclusive financial assessment standards for small and micro enterprises.Yuan “, adjusted to” single household credit is less than 10 million yuan. ”

This is not only equivalent to expanding the coverage of preferential financial reduction policies for inclusive finance, but also enabling some banks that have already enjoyed preferential reduction policies to increase the degree of preferential treatment.

  For example, according to the budget, after the adjustment of the assessment and nuclear standards, in addition to the Construction Bank, the other three major state-owned banks will also meet the requirement of a 150bp discount file; gradually, some stock banks and other small and medium-sized banks are also expected to meet this requirement. It is expected thatRelease about 700-800 billion liquidity.

  Responding to market calls for a full-scale reduction has come to extend the adjustment of the content of the inclusive financial assessment of targeted reductions, which is called “preheating” of the reduction.

Recently, there are too many analysts in the market. Due to the huge gap in the base currency before the Spring Festival, once it is necessary to implement a comprehensive RRR cut.

Today, Li Keqiang specifically aimed at reducing the overall level, which is equivalent to a positive response to the market prospects. It is foreseeable that there will be a round of overall level reduction soon.

  In fact, the market may have “smelled”
the pre-expanded full-scale reduction. Affected by this good news, the A-shares performed well today, with the Shanghai Composite Index gaining for half a day.

81% regained 2500 points. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index, ChiNext, etc. all rose over 2%. Among them, brokerage stocks led a strong rebound. Zhongyuan Securities, Tianfeng Securities, Nanjing Securities, Great Wall Securities and other collective daily limits.

  According to the calculation of Qu Chuang’s team at Huachuang Securities, the base currency will still be 4 trillion -4 before the Spring Festival this year.

The gap of 5 trillion US dollars requires the use of monetary policy tools for hedging in advance, and gradually adopting a combination of CRA, MLF, large-scale reverse repurchase in the open market, and even lowering the level of the basic currency to calm down capital fluctuations.

  Guotai Junan’s macro research team believes that China ‘s PMI fell below the line of honor for the first time in 29 months in December, reflecting further downward pressure on the economy. PMI data reflects that the government is maintaining economic stability through infrastructure construction.The budget of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress authorized some advances to add local government debt restrictions. Under the pressure of local debt resolution and repayment, infrastructure rebound will be helped to some extent.

The increase in the supply of government bonds has impacted market liquidity and is expected to be fully reduced by 100 basis points to hedge in January.

  ”But what the experts want is that no matter what monetary policy tools are used, the base currency issuance before the Spring Festival is still hedging, which does not mean that the tone of monetary policy has shifted to loose.

“Qichuang team of Huachuang Securities said.

  Stable growth is imminent. Both fiscal and monetary policies are expanding. Li Keqiang focused on this inspection. It is necessary to strengthen the counter-cyclical adjustment of macroeconomic policies, increase tax and fee reduction measures, make good use of comprehensive reductions, target reductions, and support private enterprises.And small and micro enterprises financing.
  It can be polished. In the face of the current pressure of stable economic growth, fiscal and monetary policies will intensify 夜来香体验网 counter-cyclical adjustments. This will be the main theme of this year’s macro policy.

  So, how to understand the counter-cyclical adjustment of fiscal + monetary policy?

  Yu Yongding, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, recently pointed out in an interview with China Business News that China’s immediate problem is that the gradual system of economic growth will further reduce and replace it. It is necessary for China to implement an expansionary fiscal policy, supplemented by a moderately loose monetary policy.

  ”Although China faces huge challenges, economic restructuring, economic restructuring, and prevention of financial risks, including real estate bubbles, excessive corporate leverage, shadow banking risks, and local financing platform defaults, the most pressing issue is the continued economic growthdecline.

Yu Yongding said that China’s experience over the past 40 years has proven that without a certain economic growth rate, all problems will worsen, because most economic and financial problems are based on the economic growth rate as the denominator.

Without a certain rate of economic growth, long-term issues such as structural adjustment and economic system reform cannot be discussed.

It must now be recognized that the continued decline in economic growth may be the biggest risk facing China.

  In terms of fiscal policy, the Central Economic Work Conference also proposed that positive fiscal policies should be strengthened to improve efficiency, implement larger scale tax and fee reductions, and expand the scope to increase the scale of local government special bonds.

  Therefore, in terms of monetary policy, Yu Yongding believes that one of its important policy goals next year is to “escort” the expansionary fiscal policy.

  ”In addition to achieving growth and price targets, in order to cooperate with the Ministry of Finance’s issuance of expanded government bonds, China’s transition should also adopt a more expanded monetary policy.

For the time being, China should not reduce its money supply simply by increasing the real estate bubble.China’s CPI is currently about 2%, and the economic growth rate has continued. The situation of these two indicators should introduce a gradually expanding monetary policy.

Yu Yongding said.

  The traditional view is that long-term injection of too much liquidity into the economy is the culprit of the real estate bubble.

But Yu Yuding believes that this view may only be partially correct.

In fact, interest rate growth in house prices occurred long before accumulated credit was loosened.

The rise and fall of China’s house prices is expected, and it is difficult to determine the causal relationship between money supply and house prices.

There is every reason to believe that the real cause-effect relationship is that the rise in house prices leads to an increase in the money supply.

Rising house prices will recapture a large amount of funds that were originally circulated in the real economy and re-circulate in the capital market.

Therefore, the long-term need to increase the money supply to meet the liquidity needs of the real economy.

  The China Democracy Party ‘s Deputy Director Mingming Democracy also stated that the Central Political Bureau Conference and the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of last year both released high-level consciousness of worry and sound economic signals for 2019.Will continue.

The path of stable growth is also very important. Specifically, it is divided into two, one is to relax real estate, the other is to increase infrastructure, and the third is to reduce taxes.

In fact, there are some differences between these three paths. Because tax reductions will inevitably lead to fiscal revenue reductions to curb infrastructure, and whether certain loose land will be introduced in conjunction with real estate taxes, the effect of hedging tax reductions will be reduced.

We think that from the urgency of the policy, stable infrastructure is the best choice, and stable infrastructure needs to resolve government debt, so it requires loose currency to increase the market, and then market interest rates reduce the downside.Expectations are too consistent and there is a possibility of adjustment; meanwhile, the expectation of infrastructure improvement will also support the stock market.

Shentong Express (002468): Refined Management of Ali’s Shares Ushers in Estimated Repair

Shentong Express (002468): Refined Management of Ali’s Shares Ushers in Estimated Repair

Ali’s shareholding, refined management usher in the estimated restoration of Ali’s shareholding, and the incumbent courier leader refined conversion.

The Shentong Express brand was founded in 1993. It is one of the first express delivery companies. The company has adopted an asset-light model in the past few years. It has slowly fallen behind in the fierce market competition, changing the company’s efforts to change its previous strategic capital expansion.It bottomed out in May 2018 and its operating conditions improved; Ali intends to 46.

With 65 trillion shares, the company will further explore cooperation in logistics technology, express delivery, new retail logistics and other areas, and the old-style express delivery leader will usher in transformation.

  Pinduoduo and other e-commerce developments drive high growth in the industry.

The State Post Bureau estimates that 60 billion express delivery services will be completed in 2019, an annual growth rate of 20%; business revenue will be 715 billion yuan, an annual increase of 19%, and the rapid development of e-commerce, such as Pinduoduo, will be the main driving force.

According to trustdata data, the growth rate of mobile Internet users in third-, fourth-, and fifth-tier cities is much faster than that of first- and second-tier cities, with the highest growth rate of 61 in fourth-tier cities.


With the rapid growth of Internet users in low-tier cities, the transformation led to the rapid growth of Pinduoduo. In 2018, its GMV was 471.6 billion US dollars, an increase of 233.

99%, the number of orders is 11.1 billion, an annual increase of 158.

14% is expected to double in 2019.

  Benchmarking Zhongtong Express, refined management to reduce costs and increase efficiency.

The transportation cost and transit cost have a large space for reduction, which is the main direction of the company’s refined management and cost reduction.

We compare Chinatong Express’s leading advantages mainly with the addition of high-capacity drop trailers, route optimization, and automatic sorting equipment. We believe that Shentong can replicate its successful experience and conduct sophisticated management.

1) The company acquired 15 transshipment centers in 2018 with a self-employment rate of approximately 88%. The acquisition of transshipment centers is nearing completion.

Higher automation equipment consumption and lower costs are the key. Zhongtong is equipped with 120 sets of automatic sorting equipment, while Shentong Shentong direct transfer center has only more than 30 sets of automatic sorting equipment, which can still improve space.

2) Proportionate to the size of the transshipment center construction, transportation migration and cost reduction, we analyzed the composition of Xiazhongtong vehicles and found that the use of high-capacity drop trailers is high, and the company increased the investment in drop trailers. There were 13 in the first half of 2018.

There are 1,750 large vehicles over 5 meters, accounting for 43 of the total vehicles.


  Improve service quality and enhance competitiveness.

By continuously improving the efficiency of transit and transportation, the company reduced the three-piece delivery rate (delay rate, loss 杭州桑拿 rate, breakage rate) and increased service awareness. The company’s effective replacement rate was 5 in January 2018.

51 dropped to 0 in December.

13. Ranked first among major express delivery companies, meeting the needs of large e-commerce customer service quality.

  Profit forecast: We forecast the company’s net profit for 2019-202024.

02 ppm, 28.

470,000 yuan, an increase of 17 in ten years.

5%, 18.


We think Shentong Express has improved fundamentals and improved management efficiency, giving the company a target price of 31 in 2019.

4 yuan, corresponding to 20 times the PE estimate, the first coverage assigned a “buy” rating.

  Risk reminder: the risk caused by market competition, the risk that Pinduoduo and other e-commerce growth is less than expected, the failure of Alibaba to acquire shares, and the risk of integration.

Changan Automobile (000625) Half-yearly report in 2019: Q2 significantly reduces losses, Changan Ford enters new product cycle

Changan Automobile (000625) Half-yearly report in 2019: Q2 significantly reduces losses, Changan Ford enters new product cycle
Company dynamics The company released the semi-annual report for 2019 and achieved operating income of 298.7.6 billion, a decrease of 16 per year.18%, net profit attributable to mother -22.4 billion, an annual decrease of 239.17%. Matter comments Q2 significantly reduced losses, and the gross profit margin improved significantly. The company achieved operating income of 138 in Q2.68 ppm, a decrease of 11 per year.29%, net profit attributable to mother -1.4.4 billion, down 165 a year.97%, but 20% more acceptable than Q1.96 trillion digits significantly reduced losses.In the first half of the year, the company’s gross profit margin was 8.22%, a decline of 5 per year.89%, of which the gross profit margin in the second quarter was 11.92%, down 4 each year.88%, up 6 from the previous month.90%, gross profit margin improved significantly. Automobile sales have improved, Chongqing Changan ‘s growth rate has turned positive, Changan Ford ‘s decline has narrowed, and the company ‘s 520,000 units have fallen by 31% in the first half of the year.65%, of which Chongqing Changan, Hebei Changan, Hefei Changan, Changan Ford, Changan Mazda, and Jiangling Holdings fell 24.73%, 40.59%, 12.63%, 66.99%, 32.22%, 22.98%.At present, the company’s sales situation has improved. Since June, Chongqing Changan’s sales growth has turned positive, and the sales in June and July were 5 respectively.490,000, 4.490,000 vehicles, an increase of 14 in ten years.6%, 24.3%; Changan Ford sales in July fell 24% year-on-year.5%, a decrease of 66% over the first half of the year.99% narrowed; Changan Mazda’s growth rate turned positive in July, achieving sales of 1.160,南京夜网000 vehicles, an increase of 18 in ten years.2%. New models of independent brands have been launched one after another, and Changan Ford has entered the new product cycle. The company’s new product launch has accelerated.In terms of independent brands, in the first half of the year, the company launched CS85 COUPE, the new CS15, the new CS95, Keshang, Yidong ET, Kai Cheng F70 and other new models.For Changan Ford, Ford Motors launched the “Ford Chinese Product 330 Plan”. The company plans to launch more than 30 new models in the Chinese market in the next three years. The products cover Ford and Lincoln brands, of which more than 10 are new energy models. The investment proposal estimates that the company’s EPS will be 0 from 2019 to 2021.07 yuan, 0.65 yuan, 0.95 yuan, the corresponding PE is 113 times, 12 times, 9 times, the first rating, given the “overweight” rating. Risks indicate that car sales are less than expected.